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Market Commentary
Are Western Democracies Heading Towards Ordoliberalism?
1. Juni 2025
Open economic areas have been led by "dealmakers" at least since the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States. This shift in political style moves away from state care for its citizens and from the global security architecture, where large state associations create security zones. However, this is by no means a libertarian approach that aims to truly reduce state activity to a few functions. It is about maximizing national benefits and national military and economic power.
This theoretical framework is important for evaluating current events in the capital markets. One fundamental insight, the effects of which we have experienced in recent months, is that agreements are made very short-term after the negotiating partners initially overwhelm each other with maximum demands, and then achieve a high result starting from this high "anchor." However, this tactic reduces the predictability of economic processes and thus also increases uncertainty.
Currently, little is being said about the US dollar as the most powerful instrument of American economic policy. The topic of import taxation (tariffs) is too dominant at the moment. But the US dollar is already moving capital flows in a favorable direction for the US government. The weaker US dollar makes foreign goods more expensive in the US and exports US inflation to trading partners. This creates an economic moat around the USA, forcing foreign producers to either reduce their margins or relocate their production to the USA.
So much for the theories of international trade policy. However, the restriction of globalization does not come without the renunciation of the gains from globalization. Painful adjustment processes are required here, which are exacerbated by excessive geopolitical tensions.
For the second half of the year, this means significant opportunities for active asset management, as individual topics such as artificial intelligence, further automation, military armament, and infrastructure renewal come to the forefront.